Hours after a man fell out of a tree in City Park in March, the cypress where he had lived for 11 days in protest was felled, the branches swept away to make room for a new golf course. What that chopped-down tree represents has sparked a debate over the future of City Park, one of the nation's largest urban parks at 1,300 acres.

For park leaders, it's a relatively small sacrifice toward building a financially stable and more attractive public space, while using the game of golf to also fund a socially minded mission of affordable housing and support services at the nearby former St. Bernard project.

But for opponents of the new golf course, it represents a bad investment of public dollars in a declining, elitist sport with fewer players and more courses closing nationwide -- at the expense of an urban haven of natural beauty and wildlife.

Is a $24.5 million championship course and facilities a wise investment as the golf industry struggles? The answer comes down to whether enough tourists, conventioneers and locals want to pay to play.

"We are extremely confident that we'll have a first-rate golf complex that is sized appropriately for the park," said Bob Becker, City Park's CEO, adding the viability of the course has been studied in depth. "No one has an incentive to build a loser," he said. "We strongly believe the golf course to be effective."

The new course is being built between Harrison and Filmore avenues, along Couterie Forest and over the footprint of another flooded course. It will sit across Filmore Avenue from a driving range and the North golf course, which opened in 2008 and will be part of the new complex.

The project is financed through a combination of public and private money: $6 million from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, $9.5 million from the state's capital outlay budget and $8.9 million from the Bayou District Foundation, a nonprofit affordable housing developer contracted to manage the 383-acre golf complex. Its facilities will also include a clubhouse for the championship course. The Bayou District Foundation in turn is partnering with PGA Tour Golf Course Properties to operate the complex.

Bayou District will take a share of golf course profits to pay for its ongoing work redeveloping the former St. Bernard housing project into a mixed-income community known as Columbia Parc.

Supply vs. Demand

New Orleans isn't lacking in places to play golf. There are dozens of courses in the New Orleans metro area, with championship-level layouts at English Turn and TPC Louisiana in Avondale, where the PGA Tour event Zurich Classic has been played every year since 2005.

Nationwide, the state of the golf industry is dim and the future is murky. Millions of players have fled the sport in the past decade, but the National Golf Foundation says total players have hovered around 25 million in recent years. Last year, 174 courses closed, and more are expected to shutter. Average per-course golf fee revenues have been flat. Golf retailers, meanwhile, have struggled in the tough market conditions.

Is it an industry in demise or, as the National Golf Foundation argues, a "natural correction" after a frenzy of thousands of golf course openings from the mid-1980s through the mid-2000s?

The popularity of golf has fizzled over the last decade.

Sports economist Todd McFall at Wake Forest University said he's not optimistic about golf's outlook. People are facing stagnant wages and less time to commit to a five-hour round of 18 holes. Meanwhile, public interest in the game waned as the implosion of Tiger Woods' career coincided with a national economic crisis in 2009, he said.

McFall noted that the U.S. Golf Association recently launched an advertising campaign urging people to consider playing shorter, nine-hole rounds to churn up attendance. "New Orleans will have to fight that to some extent. Because if this is going to be successful, they need to have golfers playing that course all day, and I don't see people going to New Orleans for vacation purposes as filling up tee times," McFall said, adding locals will need be engaged in the course.

The City Park course, though, does have potential to align with the city's tourism industry and attract avid golfers interested in a course designed by the well-known Rees Jones golf architecture firm, he said. "There's a lot of factors that are pushing against opening a course, but the uniqueness of the urban environment, the comparative advantage of New Orleans in the travel tourism industry -- I see real positives that could come out of this, if it's a well-managed, well-designed facility," McFall said.

Those questioning the wisdom of building a golf course point to recent news of struggling retailers. ESPN reported last year that Dick's Sporting Goods, the largest retailer of golf brands TaylorMade and Callaway, laid off more than 500 PGA professionals at its stores. The company had hoped the pros would attract new customers.

Nationwide, 174 golf courses closed last year, leaving more than 14,400 courses operating, according to a National Golf Foundation report. "With supply still outweighing demand, this anticipated reduction in the total number of courses is part of a supply correction that has been ongoing for much of the past decade," the report says.

But as some courses shut down, 11 opened for business, according to the report. Another 91 courses reopened after renovations, while 15 came back after closing for other reasons.

Daily-fee public courses have increased their market share from 60 percent to 75 percent over the last three decades, outshining membership-driven private courses. The National Golf Foundation report notes some private clubs are shifting their business models to include daily-fee, public access to avoid closing.

Between 1990 and 2005, there was a 40 percent increase in golf course supply, the report says, and a 5 percent decrease since the mid-2000s peak. "So what we are witnessing is a much needed step toward a healthier balance between supply and demand," the report says.

This isn't the first time the state has invested in a New Orleans area golf course. State lawmakers in 2009 signed off on a $9.2 million bailout of a struggling TPC Louisiana, even after the state had already poured $18.4 million into the course over a decade. TPC Louisiana is now under the purview of the Louisiana Stadium and Exposition District, which manages other facilities including the Superdome.

Golf vs. Nature

Earlier this year, a public outcry erupted as a security fence was erected around the site of the new City Park as construction got underway. In the nearly decade since Katrina, the area had returned to nature and became a beloved spot for some to hike, fly a kite or picnic with a date.

One man lived in a tree behind the fence for 11 days in protest. Organizers formed the "City Park for Everyone Coalition" to object to the golf course plans. On March 25, the group filed a federal lawsuit seeking to halt the construction. The case is still pending.

One of the organizers, Chris Lane, questioned City Park's decision amid the golf industry's struggles and the state's investment given its current budget crisis. He said the park has been on a mission to build golf on as much land as possible north of Interstate 610.

Instead, Lane envisions the space with trails, places to run around, play Frisbee, practice tai chi and pursue other activities. "I love that space, and I love the fact that you have this area in the city that gives you the release of being in nature and being far enough away from roads and buildings that you can just hear bird songs and insects, and you really do feel that you are in nature," Lane said. "I think that's something that's really important for a lot of people."

Lane said there are ways to monetize such a space, such as a daily use fee or an annual pass.

In response, Becker notes the public has access to similarly undeveloped site directly across Harrison Avenue, another former course. Becker said no plan has been decided for the area, but it won't return to golf. He said the decision not to return golf there was in response to public feedback.

Becker said golf's footprint in the park will actually be smaller than its pre-Katrina presence. The Big Lake area and the Festival Grounds were once used for golf, too. The South course was the first to be built in 1902, one of the first projects at the park, which was created in 1854 but sat largely untouched for years.

Revenue vs. Refuge

The park's $16 million annual operating budget is based on 85 percent of revenues coming from the park's activities and 15 percent from slot machine tax revenues. Philanthropic donations typically go toward major capital projects. The Fair Grounds generates virtually all of slot machine revenue, capped at $2 million annually, while $200,000 comes in from the rest of the state.

The 161-year-old park has received no government funding for most of its history and has relied on golf to fuel its income, Becker said. The golf complex with a new championship course needs to make money in the future, Becker said, not just break even.

"It's always been the single major generator of revenue for the park to operate, and we need the complex to do that," Becker said. "We will."

City Park is basing its financial projections for the golf complex's performance on a 2007 report from consultant David Nissenson, who at the time was with Economics Research Associations and is now managing principal at firm Mareth Advisors. His analysis predicts the championship course will attract 18,000 rounds in its first year, growing to 20,000 in the second year and 24,000 in the third year, where it would stay through the next five years, where the projection ends.

Becker said the projection is based on charging an average $73 per round. The prices have not been settled, he said, but he expects the range to be between $30 and $100, with higher fees for tourists and on weekends.

The lower-priced North course, with 38,000 rounds yearly, combined with the new course would bring in just over $2 million in green fees the first year, growing to $2.9 million annually in eight years. Total revenues also include pro shop merchandise sales, food and beverage, and golf cart rentals.

Becker said the North course has outperformed those projections.

With the expenses of maintaining the course and operations, profits would come in at $525,000 in the first year for the complex, growing to $1.2 million by the eighth year, according to the projection.

In a written statement this month, Nissenson said the analysis stems from a 2007 feasibility study. As economic conditions continue to improve after the 2009 downturn nationwide, "the underpinnings of golf demand will as well," he said.

Nissenson said a City Park championship course has several advantages. The park is a convenient location, particularly when compared with other high-end offerings in the area, he said, and the course can be more easily marketed to attract tournaments and tourists, which have the potential to bring in higher revenues. He said a combined 36-hole property offers more market exposure and allows the park to pursue events without displacing daily users.

Jeff Katz, another organizer with City Park for Everyone, said Nissenson's findings are a prime indicator the city can't support another championship course, which will only cannibalize the market. Katz suggested forming a "friends of the wild" benevolent group to raise money for the area, offering the chance to name century-old oak trees for donations, or hold acoustic concerts.

Katz also wonders how many golfers are likely to play in the hot summer months, even as the operator pays to maintain the course. "I think that taking care of the wild piece of space is much more cost effective and eco-friendly," Katz said.

Becker disagrees with that vision.

"City Park is a large park in the center of an urban region, and as a result, it has an obligation to provide services to a lot of things," Becker said. "It is not a wildlife refuge. It is not a national park. It is a large piece of open space that has to respond to people's wants and desires and needs... We have tried very hard to balance the needs of the park, needs of the users of the park and the park's financial platform. There's not many other uses that we think would generate the revenue for us than golf."

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